Analyses / F
Negative margins, restructuring headwinds, but high dividend yield and insider accumulation signal near-term stabilization potential.
A free account reveals F's entry zone, price target & stop loss. Full 1-week to 1-year price forecasts are included with Pro.
The Thesis
▲ Bull Case
Trading 21% below 52-week high; 5.77% dividend yield with 53% payout ratio (sustainable). Insider buying (162 buys vs 109 sells) + positive revenue growth (+5.8% LTM, +8% 5Y) suggest operational recovery under way. F-150 2027 refresh + $1B Kentucky capex indicate product/market focus. P/S 0.30x offers cheap entry if turnaround takes hold.
▼ Bear Case
Operating margin deeply negative (-4.9%); net margin -4.37%. EV/EBITDA is negative (EBITDA itself negative)—core profitability in crisis. Legacy auto faces secular EV transition headwinds, cost inflation, and union labor pressure. Restructuring may take years; downside to $11 (52W low) if turnaround stalls or recession deepens.
Valuation
Undervalued on FCF & dividend, but margin depression creates execution risk. — score 62/100
P/S 0.30x is deeply discounted vs. historical 0.5–0.7x; FCF/price 4.45x offers yield-like profile. However, negative operating/net margins make traditional P/E irrelevant until recovery. P/B 1.45x is fair-to-cheap for a $55B cap, but book value quality depends on asset recovery assumptions.
Technical Levels
Support · $11.11 (52-week low) · $12.50 (Technical support (recent lows)) · $13.50 (Short-term support)
Resistance · $14.50 (Recent intraday range top) · $15.50 (Technical resistance (3M target)) · $17.78 (52-week high)
Financial Health
Score 52/100. Liquidity adequate (current ratio 1.07) but tight (quick 0.94). Core profitability negative; working capital management critical. Dividend payout at 53% of earnings (if earnings were positive) is sustainable only if margins recover near-term.
Catalysts
| Q1/Q2 2025 Earnings (margin trends, capex updates) | ~6-8 weeks | high |
| F-150 2027 Refresh Launch Previews / Production Ramp | 2026–27 | high |
| Kentucky Paint Shop Operational Efficiency Gains | Late 2025 onwards | medium |
| Labor Cost Negotiations / Union Wage Pressure Update | Ongoing | medium |
| EV Segment (Mustang Mach-E, F-150 Lightning) Profitability Inflection | 2025–26 | high |
| Dividend Sustainability / Payout Ratio Review | Q1/Q2 guidance | medium |
Risk Flags
See F's full trade plan — free
Create a free account to unlock the exact entry, target, and stop — plus run live analysis on any of 5,000+ tickers. No card required.
Unlock F free →Recent News
- Ford revamps 2027 F-150 with hands-free towing, more V8 options, giving customers what they want, exec saysYahoo
- Ignore rising factory costs at your peril, Ford boss warns LabourYahoo
- Ford investing $1bn for new paint shop at Kentucky Truck PlantYahoo
- Ford Motor vs. Tesla: Which Automotive Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?Yahoo
You've read your 2 free analyses
Create a free account for unlimited analyses — every name on the page, plus live tools on 5,000+ tickers. No card required.
Read the full F analysis — free →Free to read · 2 analyses every 30 days without an account
More Analyses
F FAQ
Is F a buy right now?
Ford Motor Co's current read is a Value / Income / Turnaround setup with 52 confidence over a 3-6 months horizon. Valuation: Undervalued on FCF & dividend, but margin depression creates execution risk.. See the full bull and bear case above, or run a live analysis for the exact entry, target and stop.
Is F overvalued?
Undervalued on FCF & dividend, but margin depression creates execution risk. (valuation score 62/100). P/S 0.30x is deeply discounted vs. historical 0.5–0.7x; FCF/price 4.45x offers yield-like profile. However, negative operating/net margins make traditional P/E irrelevant until recovery. P/B 1.45x is fair-to-cheap for a $55B cap, but book value quality depends on asset recovery assumptions.
What are the risks of buying F?
Operating margin deeply negative (-4.9%); net margin -4.37%. EV/EBITDA is negative (EBITDA itself negative)—core profitability in crisis. Legacy auto faces secular EV transition headwinds, cost inflation, and union labor pressure. Restructuring may take years; downside to $11 (52W low) if turnaround stalls or recession deepens.