Analyses / F
Challenged auto OEM facing margin compression, EV headwinds; 4.5% yield attracts income buyers despite earnings pressure.
A free account reveals F's entry zone, price target & stop loss. Full 1-week to 1-year price forecasts are included with Pro.
The Thesis
▲ Bull Case
High dividend yield (4.5%) provides cushion for income-focused holders. Insider buying (181 buys vs 109 sells) suggests confidence from management. P/S 0.30x is historically reasonable for autos. Revenue growing ~6% YoY. If EV ramp & supply normalize, margin recovery could drive re-rating. Currently off 52-week highs (~$17.78), offering valuation entry for patient value traders.
▼ Bear Case
Negative operating margin (-4.9%) and net margin (-4.37%) signal deep structural stress. EV demand slump + Q2 sales miss cited in headlines. P/B 1.45x vs negative ROE/ROA compounds concern. Price-to-FCF 4.47x not cheap enough to offset profitability drag. EV transition capex burden likely to persist. 4-day losing streak + weak sector momentum. If margins don't recover in 6–12 months, dividend at risk.
Valuation
Fair to Undervalued on metrics; Overvalued on earnings risk — score 56/100
P/S 0.30x and P/B 1.45x appear cheap vs large-cap auto peers, but negative margins (Op: -4.9%, Net: -4.37%) make traditional P/E meaningless. Price-to-FCF 4.47x reasonable if FCF sustains, but margin recovery unclear. Dividend yield 4.5% high relative to Treasury; suggests bond market pricing in refinance risk or dividend cut risk.
Technical Levels
Support · $12.80 (Recent low (intraday today)) · $11.90 (Key support (stop level)) · $10.68 (52-week low)
Resistance · $14.00 (Intraday high / psychological) · $15.20 (3-month range resistance) · $17.78 (52-week high)
RSI: Not provided
Financial Health
Score 48/100. Ford shows moderate financial stress. Quick ratio <1.0 indicates tight liquidity. Negative operating margin signals ongoing operational burn. Heavy leverage typical in auto sector adds refinance risk if rates stay elevated. Dividend sustainability is at risk if losses persist.
Catalysts
| Q3 & Q4 earnings reports (summer/fall 2024) | 8–12 weeks | High — margin trends, EV ramp progress, and guidance updates will drive stock reaction. Beat could spark relief rally; miss could accelerate downside. |
| Supply chain normalization signals | Ongoing, 2–4 quarters ahead | High — if chip/material supply stabilizes, Ford's production & pricing power may recover. |
| EV demand / pricing stabilization | 2–4 quarters | High — EV losses widening due to demand slump; stabilization critical for margin recovery narrative. |
| Dividend announcement / cut risk | Quarterly, next ~8 weeks | High — if guidance worsens, dividend cut likely; would trigger further selloff. |
| Broader auto sector / macro recovery signals | Ongoing | Medium — cyclical headwinds from recession fears or rate/credit tightening could dominate near-term. |
Risk Flags
See F's full trade plan — free
Create a free account to unlock the exact entry, target, and stop — plus run live analysis on any of 5,000+ tickers. No card required.
Unlock F free →Recent News
You've read your 2 free analyses
Create a free account for unlimited analyses — every name on the page, plus live tools on 5,000+ tickers. No card required.
Read the full F analysis — free →Free to read · 2 analyses every 30 days without an account
More Analyses
F FAQ
Is F a buy right now?
Ford Motor Co's current read is a Value / Income with Cyclical & Structural Headwinds setup with Medium confidence over a 6–12 months horizon. Valuation: Fair to Undervalued on metrics; Overvalued on earnings risk. See the full bull and bear case above, or run a live analysis for the exact entry, target and stop.
Is F overvalued?
Fair to Undervalued on metrics; Overvalued on earnings risk (valuation score 56/100). P/S 0.30x and P/B 1.45x appear cheap vs large-cap auto peers, but negative margins (Op: -4.9%, Net: -4.37%) make traditional P/E meaningless. Price-to-FCF 4.47x reasonable if FCF sustains, but margin recovery unclear. Dividend yield 4.5% high relative to Treasury; suggests bond market pricing in refinance risk or dividend cut risk.
What are the risks of buying F?
Negative operating margin (-4.9%) and net margin (-4.37%) signal deep structural stress. EV demand slump + Q2 sales miss cited in headlines. P/B 1.45x vs negative ROE/ROA compounds concern. Price-to-FCF 4.47x not cheap enough to offset profitability drag. EV transition capex burden likely to persist. 4-day losing streak + weak sector momentum. If margins don't recover in 6–12 months, dividend at risk.