Analyses / GS
Investment bank trading at modest valuation with 19.8% EPS growth; insider selling elevated; dividend stable at 1.76%.
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The Thesis
▲ Bull Case
GS trades at 16.9x trailing P/E vs 19.8% EPS growth — a modest discount to quality. Forward P/E 17.8x. 5-year revenue CAGR 17.3%, operating margin 17.5% stable. Dividend yield 1.76% with 31% payout ratio leaves room for buybacks. Capital position strong. Sector momentum positive (Financial stocks advancing). Beta 1.31 offers tactical leverage if equities rally.
▼ Bear Case
Current ratio 0.315 reflects capital-light banking model but signals tight liquidity. P/B 2.11x near historical norm — no margin of safety. EV/EBITDA 64x is elevated and distorts valuation signal. Insider selling 187 transactions vs 42 buys (4.6:1 ratio) is a caution flag — smart money may be trimming. Price already +48% from 52-week low; extended. Leverage embedded in financial services model; macro slowdown or credit stress could compress multiples.
Valuation
Fair to Slightly Undervalued — score 68/100
P/E 16.9x vs 19.8% EPS growth suggests modest discount. Forward P/E 17.8x appropriate. P/B 2.11x in-line for large bank. EV/EBITDA 64x distorted by low denominator; deprioritize. Dividend yield 1.76% + payout 31% leaves upside for capital returns.
Technical Levels
Support · $1,009.73 (Today's low) · $1,000.00 (Round level / prior consolidation) · $980.00 (Entry zone low; ~4% downside) · $920.00 (Stop loss; ~10% downside)
Resistance · $1,039.28 (Today's high) · $1,050.00 (Round level) · $1,095.00 (3-month target) · $1,125.00 (52-week high)
RSI: Not provided by Finnhub; monitor externally for overbought/oversold extremes.
Financial Health
Score 70/100. Large bank; liquidity ratios < 1.0 reflect structural model (deposits, leverage). Operating & net margins robust. No red flags on solvency. Regulatory capital ratios (not in data) are primary health metric.
Catalysts
| Q2 2025 Earnings (timing TBD) | 2-4 weeks | High. Trading book P&L, advisory fees, and capital allocation guidance key metrics. Beat on EPS growth 19.8% would support re-rating. |
| Federal Reserve Rate Decision / Guidance | Ongoing | High. Lower rates compress NII (net interest income); higher rates support spreads. Market implied ~2 cuts in 2025; if delayed, positive for GS. |
| M&A / Capital Deployment Announcements | Quarterly / Ad hoc | Medium. Buyback acceleration or special dividend would support price. Insider selling suggests caution on M&A multiples. |
| Regulatory Capital Ratios / Stress Test Results | Ongoing (annual stress test cycle) | Medium. GS has historically passed; results could unlock dividend boost or buyback authority. |
Risk Flags
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GS FAQ
Is GS a buy right now?
Goldman Sachs Group Inc's current read is a Value / Income setup with 62 confidence over a 3-6 months horizon. Valuation: Fair to Slightly Undervalued. See the full bull and bear case above, or run a live analysis for the exact entry, target and stop.
Is GS overvalued?
Fair to Slightly Undervalued (valuation score 68/100). P/E 16.9x vs 19.8% EPS growth suggests modest discount. Forward P/E 17.8x appropriate. P/B 2.11x in-line for large bank. EV/EBITDA 64x distorted by low denominator; deprioritize. Dividend yield 1.76% + payout 31% leaves upside for capital returns.
What are the risks of buying GS?
Current ratio 0.315 reflects capital-light banking model but signals tight liquidity. P/B 2.11x near historical norm — no margin of safety. EV/EBITDA 64x is elevated and distorts valuation signal. Insider selling 187 transactions vs 42 buys (4.6:1 ratio) is a caution flag — smart money may be trimming. Price already +48% from 52-week low; extended. Leverage embedded in financial services model; macro slowdown or credit stress could compress multiples.