HCA Stock: Buy or Sell? Price Target & Forecast

Q: Is HCA a buy right now?

HCA Healthcare Inc's current read is a value setup with 62 confidence over a 3-6 months horizon. Valuation: fair. See the full bull and bear case above, or run a live analysis for the exact entry, target and stop.

Q: Is HCA overvalued?

fair (valuation score 64/100). Forward P/E 13.4x discount to S&P 500 ~18x reflects leverage and cyclicality. EPS growth 14% + dividend 0.95% justify modest premium to market. P/S 1.20x and EV/EBITDA 9.98x near historical norms.

Analyses / HCA

HCA HCA Healthcare Inc As of Sep 11, 2026

$421.21

Large-cap hospital operator trading near 52-week midpoint; modest dividend, near-term caution on elective procedures.

Setup: value Confidence: 62 Horizon: 3-6 months Risk: medium Category: Large Cap

🔒 Trade Plan — entry · target · stop

Entry Zone

$•••–•••

Target

$•••

Stop Loss

$•••

Risk / Reward

•.• : 1

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The Thesis

▲ Bull Case

Stable 8–9% net margin, 14% EPS growth, forward P/E 13.4x suggests room vs peers. Dividend yield 0.95% + 10% payout ratio leaves capital for buybacks. Beta 1.14 implies moderate resilience.

▼ Bear Case

52-week high 556.52 vs current 421 signals downside momentum; CEO guidance excludes surgery rebound. Current ratio 0.96 tight; negative tangible book value (-44.78) flags high leverage. Insider selling (46 sells vs 37 buys) suggests caution.

Valuation

fair — score 64/100

Forward P/E 13.4x discount to S&P 500 ~18x reflects leverage and cyclicality. EPS growth 14% + dividend 0.95% justify modest premium to market. P/S 1.20x and EV/EBITDA 9.98x near historical norms.

Technical Levels

Support · $415.00 (Recent day low; near consolidation floor) · $400.00 (Round number; 5% below current) · $354.00 (52-week low; major support)

Resistance · $430.00 (Day high; near-term overhead) · $450.00 (200-day MA zone; key pivot) · $510.00 (Mid-point between 52-week high & current) · $557.00 (52-week high; major resistance)

RSI: unavailable

Financial Health

Score 58/100. Typical LBO-backed structure: low liquidity ratios (< 1.0) and heavy intangible-driven balance sheet offset by solid operating margins and cash generation. Rising rates and procedure misses could stress refinancing.

Catalysts

Q3/Q4 Earnings (likely Oct/Nov 2025)	2–3 months	high
Procedure volume trends & elective surgery recovery	ongoing	high
Federal Reserve rate path & refinancing costs	ongoing	medium
M&A or capital allocation announcement	varies	medium

Risk Flags

Current ratio 0.96 (< 1.0) signals tightness in short-term liquidity; monitor working capital.

Insider selling outpace buying (46 vs 37 transactions); total shares sold (220M) exceed bought (183M).

CEO guidance excludes elective surgery rebound; near-term procedure volumes uncertain.

Tangible book value deeply negative (-44.78 per share); high financial leverage typical for LBO-backed healthcare.

RSI data unavailable; cannot assess overbought/oversold condition or short-term momentum extremes.

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Is HCA a buy right now?