Analyses / TMUS
Telecom leader near support; strong fundamentals, heavy insider selling, modest dividend yield support near-term floor.
A free account reveals TMUS's entry zone, price target & stop loss. Full 1-week to 1-year price forecasts are included with Pro.
The Thesis
▲ Bull Case
Solid profitability (20.7% op margin, 12.45% net margin) + modest P/E 19.3x forward 18.5x vs telecom peers. 3.8% YTD price action, 67.6% EPS growth YoY signal strong execution. 2.17% dividend yield + 37.5% payout ratio sustainable. Low beta (0.35) appeals to defensive portfolios. $203B market cap, high liquidity.
▼ Bear Case
Down 28% from 52w high ($261.56); heavy insider selling (386 sells vs 33 buys, $6.1M net sold). Current price at lower end of 52w range, potential dead-cat bounce. Revenue growth only 3.5% YoY—mature telecom trajectory. Quick ratio 0.85 signals tight short-term liquidity. Sector competition and regulatory headwinds (price-cap pressure) loom.
Valuation
fair — score 72/100
P/E 19.3x (forward 18.5x) sits at fair-value for mature telecom with 67% YoY EPS growth. P/S 2.3x, EV/EBITDA 9.6x reasonable vs peers. Price-to-FCF 13.2x acceptable given margin quality (20.7% op margin). Dividend yield 2.17% adds floor. 28% drawdown from 52w high suggests mean-reversion setup.
Technical Levels
Support · $180.00 (Psychological / 5-day avg) · $175.00 (Approaching 52w low ($165.66))
Resistance · $195.00 (50-day MA estimate) · $210.00 (3m target / retest zone) · $261.56 (52w high)
RSI: Not provided
Financial Health
Score 71/100. Profitability strong (20.7% op margin); balance sheet tight (quick ratio 0.85). No solvency red flags disclosed, but liquidity warrants monitoring. Dividend payout 37.5% sustainable if FCF holds.
Catalysts
| Q1/Q2 2025 Earnings | 3–4 months | High — will confirm if 67% EPS growth sustains; margin guidance critical. |
| Insider Buying Rebalance | 2–3 months | Medium — if major insiders buy (vs selling trend), confidence resets upward. |
| Regulatory / Price-Cap Announcements | Ongoing | High — FCC/regulatory pressure on wireless pricing could cap upside; manage downside risk. |
| Dividend Increase Announcement | 1–2 quarters | Medium — if payout ratio stable + FCF solid, expect annual boost; supports floor. |
Risk Flags
See TMUS's full trade plan — free
Create a free account to unlock the exact entry, target, and stop — plus run live analysis on any of 5,000+ tickers. No card required.
Unlock TMUS free →Recent News
You've read your 2 free analyses
Create a free account for unlimited analyses — every name on the page, plus live tools on 5,000+ tickers. No card required.
Read the full TMUS analysis — free →Free to read · 2 analyses every 30 days without an account
More Analyses
TMUS FAQ
Is TMUS a buy right now?
T-Mobile US Inc's current read is a Value + Income setup with 62 confidence over a 3-6 months horizon. Valuation: fair. See the full bull and bear case above, or run a live analysis for the exact entry, target and stop.
Is TMUS overvalued?
fair (valuation score 72/100). P/E 19.3x (forward 18.5x) sits at fair-value for mature telecom with 67% YoY EPS growth. P/S 2.3x, EV/EBITDA 9.6x reasonable vs peers. Price-to-FCF 13.2x acceptable given margin quality (20.7% op margin). Dividend yield 2.17% adds floor. 28% drawdown from 52w high suggests mean-reversion setup.
What are the risks of buying TMUS?
Down 28% from 52w high ($261.56); heavy insider selling (386 sells vs 33 buys, $6.1M net sold). Current price at lower end of 52w range, potential dead-cat bounce. Revenue growth only 3.5% YoY—mature telecom trajectory. Quick ratio 0.85 signals tight short-term liquidity. Sector competition and regulatory headwinds (price-cap pressure) loom.