Analyses / WMT
Large-cap retail stalwart: valuation stretched, but dividend + macro defensiveness + strong recent momentum merit consideration.
A free account reveals WMT's entry zone, price target & stop loss. Full 1-week to 1-year price forecasts are included with Pro.
The Thesis
▲ Bull Case
WMT is a macro hedge in uncertain times. Defensive beta (0.61) limits downside; recession-resistant earnings floor. Recent +2.8% move + 10Y outperformance narrative underscore institutional demand. Dividend yield 0.76% + 34% payout ratio leaves room for increases. Retail leadership (vs Kroger churn) + e-commerce integration support 5%+ long-term growth. At P/E 38x, premium reflects quality, not overvalue—historical WMT trades 25-40x.
▼ Bear Case
Valuation is elevated: P/E 38.4x, P/B 9.9x, price-to-FCF 58.6x are all above historical norms and sector peers. EPS growth (24.2%) is unsustainably strong YoY; 5Y average 11.5% is mid-single-digit. Forward P/E 39.9x signals market pricing in continued upside—little margin for miss. Net margin 3.07% and op margin 4.18% are razor-thin; cost pressures (wages, freight) could compress further. Insider selling (213 sells vs 66 buys) suggests insiders see limited upside here.
Valuation
overvalued — score 38/100
P/E 38.4x and forward 39.9x sit in upper quintile vs historical 25-35x range. P/B 9.9x and price-to-FCF 58.6x both elevated. Yet P/S 1.23x is modest, suggesting market values brand + moat premium. Stretched, but not egregious for a quality large-cap.
Technical Levels
Support · $109.16 (Today's low; intraday pivot) · $107.50 (Entry zone support) · $103.00 (Stop-loss level; psychological floor) · $94.23 (52-week low; longer-term cushion)
Resistance · $112.45 (Today's high) · $120.00 (Psychological; prior consolidation zone) · $130.00 (Target approach) · $135.16 (52-week high; bull-case target)
Financial Health
Score 70/100. Current ratio 0.79 signals tight working capital (typical for just-in-time retail). Quick ratio 0.20 is very low—relies on rapid inventory turnover. Dividend 34% payout is sustainable. No debt data available, but WMT historically uses debt conservatively. Overall: solid operational efficiency, but liquidity is tight; any supply-chain shock could pinch.
Catalysts
| Q4 FY2025 earnings (likely Jan–Feb 2025) | next 4–8 weeks | high—revenue, margin guidance, and e-commerce growth rates will test bull narrative. Any miss could trigger 5–8% pullback. |
| Dividend increase announcement | typically Q1 2025 | medium—consistent raises (5–10% annually) would reinforce dividend-growth thesis; miss would disappoint income investors. |
| Kroger M&A integration updates | ongoing through 2025 | medium—competitive positioning vs consolidated supermarket landscape; any share loss would pressure multiples. |
| Macro economic data (jobs, inflation, consumer spending) | weekly/monthly | high—WMT is a macro proxy; recession fears = defensive rally; inflation surprise = margin pressure. |
Risk Flags
See WMT's full trade plan — free
Create a free account to unlock the exact entry, target, and stop — plus run live analysis on any of 5,000+ tickers. No card required.
Unlock WMT free →Recent News
- If You'd Invested $10,000 in Walmart Stock 10 Years Ago, Here's How Much You'd Have TodayYahoo
- Walmart and Amazon remain at the top of US retail in 2026 rankingsYahoo
- Kroger just shook up the supermarket landscapeYahoo
- Dow Closes At Record High As Weak Jobs Data Calm Rate Hike Fears, While Chipmakers Weigh On S&P 500, Nasdaq — WMT, META, GM, KR, QCOM In FocusYahoo
- Walmart Options Traders Bet on a Bounce With Bearish-Looking Reverse Diagonal Put SpreadYahoo
You've read your 2 free analyses
Create a free account for unlimited analyses — every name on the page, plus live tools on 5,000+ tickers. No card required.
Read the full WMT analysis — free →Free to read · 2 analyses every 30 days without an account
More Analyses
WMT FAQ
Is WMT a buy right now?
Walmart Inc's current read is a Defensive Growth + Income setup with 68 confidence over a 3–6 months horizon. Valuation: overvalued. See the full bull and bear case above, or run a live analysis for the exact entry, target and stop.
Is WMT overvalued?
overvalued (valuation score 38/100). P/E 38.4x and forward 39.9x sit in upper quintile vs historical 25-35x range. P/B 9.9x and price-to-FCF 58.6x both elevated. Yet P/S 1.23x is modest, suggesting market values brand + moat premium. Stretched, but not egregious for a quality large-cap.
What are the risks of buying WMT?
Valuation is elevated: P/E 38.4x, P/B 9.9x, price-to-FCF 58.6x are all above historical norms and sector peers. EPS growth (24.2%) is unsustainably strong YoY; 5Y average 11.5% is mid-single-digit. Forward P/E 39.9x signals market pricing in continued upside—little margin for miss. Net margin 3.07% and op margin 4.18% are razor-thin; cost pressures (wages, freight) could compress further. Insider selling (213 sells vs 66 buys) suggests insiders see limited upside here.