Analyses / AMD vs INTC
AMD vs INTC
A head-to-head on Advanced Micro Devices Inc and Intel Corp — valuation, the setup, and the case for each. Tap either ticker for the full trade brief.
Side by Side
| AMD | INTC | |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Advanced Micro Devices Inc | Intel Corp |
| Price | $517.82 | $120.35 |
| Today | — | — |
| Valuation | STRETCHED | Overvalued on earnings, cheap on book |
| Valuation score | 28/100 | 45/100 |
| Setup | Growth / Momentum Pullback | Value trap / cyclical recovery |
| Confidence | 62 | 58 |
| Category | Large Cap | Large Cap — Semiconductors |
The Case for Each
AMD
Bull: AMD trades at 166x P/E but grows EPS 46.6% YoY with 13.6% revenue growth; AI/datacenter tailwinds intact. Strong gross margin (49.5%) and net margin (12.5%) show pricing power. If revenue sustains 25%+ CAGR and multiple re-rates toward 100x forward P/E as growth moderates, stock could rerate 30–40% upside within 12 months. Technical support near $506 (today's low) and 200-day MA offer entry zones for momentum bulls.
Bear: P/E of 166x and forward P/E of 192x are unsustainable for a mature chipmaker; PEG is near 3.5 if growth slows to historical 5-year pace (5.1% EPS CAGR). Insider selling dominates (244 sells vs 80 buys; $525M sold vs $70M bought). Stock down 12.8% from 52-week high ($584.73) signals profit-taking. If competition or demand softens, P/E compression from 160x → 80x combined with flat revenue could mean -40% downside. Sector headwinds visible in recent chip-stock selloff.
INTC
Bull: High insider buy ratio (63 buys vs 62 sells, 2.3M net shares bought). 1.14% dividend yield with 75% payout provides income floor. P/B 1.53 below S&P avg; if margins stabilize (5.88% operating margin depressed by fab capex cycle), earnings upside possible. 52-week lows at $18.97 far below; stock bounced 6x from there—structural recovery demand in AI/data-center capex and geopolitical semiconductor reshoring tailwinds could drive multi-year rerating.
Bear: Net margin negative (-0.51%), revenue down 5.7% YoY and -7.46% over 5Y. EV/EBITDA 42.4x signals stretched valuation despite depressed earnings; price-to-FCF 68.3x unsustainable. Cyclical downturn in foundry/PC markets. Payout ratio 74.8% leaves little margin for error if earnings miss; dividend at risk if FCF dries up. Competition from TSMC, Samsung, NVDA eroding share. Down 5.25% today on sector weakness.
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