Analyses / NFLX vs DIS
NFLX vs DIS
A head-to-head on Netflix Inc and Walt Disney Co — valuation, the setup, and the case for each. Tap either ticker for the full trade brief.
Side by Side
| NFLX | DIS | |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Netflix Inc | Walt Disney Co |
| Price | $77.65 | $99.50 |
| Today | — | — |
| Valuation | Premium but justified by growth | Undervalued |
| Valuation score | 68/100 | 74/100 |
| Setup | Growth + Momentum | Value + Momentum |
| Confidence | 72 | 68 |
| Category | Large Cap | Large Cap |
The Case for Each
NFLX
Bull: AI-powered ad platform (Omnicom partnership announced) expands addressable TAM and margin profile. EPS growth 36% YoY, revenue +12.6% robust. Operating margin 29.5%, net margin 24.3% best-in-class. Rally off lows suggests institutional reaccumulation. Catalyst: ad-tier monetization gains in upcoming quarters.
Bear: Forward P/E 29.5x elevated vs 24.2x trailing; price-to-FCF 34.2x suggests execution risk priced in. Stock down 40% from 52-week high ($130)—if growth disappoints or macro sentiment sours, retest $70 likely. Insider selling (360 sells vs 235 buys) signals caution at higher levels. Subscriber saturation risk in mature markets.
DIS
Bull: Trading 20% below 52-week high ($124.61) with forward P/E 13.6x vs. historical 16–18x. EPS growth 58.5% YoY signals earnings acceleration. Insider buys outnumber sells 79:68. Dividend yield 1.5%, payout ratio 14.5% leaves room for dividend growth. Q3 earnings imminent could re-rate multiple if results beat.
Bear: Current ratio 0.71 signals tight liquidity; quick ratio 0.6 concerning for a large-cap media conglomerate. Stock ~20% below 52W high and still below key 124–125 resistance. Streaming wars remain brutal; content spend pressures margins. Macro slowdown could dent advertising and park revenues. EPS growth 58% likely unsustainable; forward guidance matters.
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