Analyses / NFLX vs DIS
NFLX vs DIS
Side by Side
| NFLX | DIS | |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Netflix Inc | Walt Disney Co |
| Price | $80.32 | $108.59 |
| Today | — | — |
| Valuation | overvalued on absolute metrics; fair on growth-adjusted basis | FAIRLY VALUED with undervaluation in forward multiples |
| Valuation score | 62/100 | 62/100 |
| Setup | Growth momentum with valuation recovery undertones | value recovery |
| Confidence | 68 | 68 |
| Category | Large-cap Growth / Media | Large Cap |
The Case for Each
NFLX
Bull: Strong EPS growth (36% YoY, 33% 5Y CAGR) and solid operating margin (29.5%) signal pricing power and cost discipline. Recent analyst upgrades (Evercore $110 PT) reflect confidence in new revenue initiatives. Stock near 52-week lows despite profitability; potential re-rating if growth narrative accelerates.
Bear: Forward P/E 30.5x significantly above historical median; P/S 7.4x and EV/EBITDA 26x warrant caution on growth deceleration. Revenue growth slowing (12.6% YoY vs 13% 5Y), suggesting subscriber/pricing headwinds. High insider selling (303 sells vs 233 buys) may signal caution at current levels.
DIS
Bull: Forward P/E of 15.1x trades below historical average; 58% EPS growth momentum + 4.5% revenue growth suggest operating leverage kicking in post-streaming heavy spending. Insider net-buying (93 buys vs 76 sells, 6.2M net shares bought) signals management conviction. Parks remain resilient earnings driver; Disney+ path to profitability unlocking FCF growth.
Bear: Trading 21.8x trailing P/E on depressed earnings base; FY2024 net margin of 13.1% below pre-COVID norms despite scale. Streaming wars intensifying, subscriber growth decelerating, and content spend still elevated. Current ratio 0.71 signals liquidity tightness; high beta (1.47) amplifies downside in risk-off rotations. Macro slowdown could pressure advertising and discretionary consumer spending on parks.
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