Analyses / NVDA vs AMD
NVDA vs AMD
A head-to-head on NVIDIA Corp and Advanced Micro Devices Inc — valuation, the setup, and the case for each. Tap either ticker for the full trade brief.
Side by Side
| NVDA | AMD | |
|---|---|---|
| Company | NVIDIA Corp | Advanced Micro Devices Inc |
| Price | $194.83 | $517.82 |
| Today | — | — |
| Valuation | OVERVALUED relative to market, FAIR relative to growth trajectory | STRETCHED |
| Valuation score | 35/100 | 28/100 |
| Setup | AI-Driven Secular Growth / Pullback Dip-Buy Candidate | Growth / Momentum Pullback |
| Confidence | 68 | 62 |
| Category | Large-Cap Growth | Large Cap |
The Case for Each
NVDA
Bull: Revenue & EPS growing 100%+ YoY. Gross margin 71%, net margin 55.6% — profitability at extreme levels. Monopoly-like position in AI accelerators (H100/H200) drives recurring data-center demand. Down 18% from 52W high = potential entry for long-term holders. Dividend yield 0.5%, stable buyback signal.
Bear: Forward P/E 39.9x vs S&P 500 ~18x. Price-to-FCF 49.6x implies near-perfect execution priced in. Insider selling 616 times vs buying 19 times (90:1 sell/buy ratio) signals potential saturation. High beta 2.24 means 2x market volatility in downturns. Regulatory/supply-chain risks to AI narrative.
AMD
Bull: AMD trades at 166x P/E but grows EPS 46.6% YoY with 13.6% revenue growth; AI/datacenter tailwinds intact. Strong gross margin (49.5%) and net margin (12.5%) show pricing power. If revenue sustains 25%+ CAGR and multiple re-rates toward 100x forward P/E as growth moderates, stock could rerate 30–40% upside within 12 months. Technical support near $506 (today's low) and 200-day MA offer entry zones for momentum bulls.
Bear: P/E of 166x and forward P/E of 192x are unsustainable for a mature chipmaker; PEG is near 3.5 if growth slows to historical 5-year pace (5.1% EPS CAGR). Insider selling dominates (244 sells vs 80 buys; $525M sold vs $70M bought). Stock down 12.8% from 52-week high ($584.73) signals profit-taking. If competition or demand softens, P/E compression from 160x → 80x combined with flat revenue could mean -40% downside. Sector headwinds visible in recent chip-stock selloff.
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