Track Record / ABNB
ABNB
Called Jul 13, 2026
at $146.83
at $146.83
▲ Bullish
+7.2% over 3 months
Reference price
$146.83
Horizon
3 months
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Oct 13, 2026
HIT
Scored HIT · realized +12.2%
Reference price
$146.83
Price at horizon
$164.71
Realized move
+12.2%
Scored Oct 13, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+7.2%; realized +12.2%.
The Call
Near 52-week highs, strong margins, but insider selling pressure and premium valuation cap near-term upside.
Base-case reasoning
Bull case hinges on earnings beat + travel demand data; bear case triggers on any guidance cut.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
World Cup 2026 demand surge + earnings beat + new HQ signals product expansion. Multiple holds at 38x.
▼ Bear
Macro slowdown dents travel spend, guidance cut, NYC regulatory overhang amplifies selling.
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