Track Record / ABNB
ABNB
Called Jul 13, 2026
at $146.83
at $146.83
▲ Bullish
+3.2% over 1 month
Reference price
$146.83
Horizon
1 month
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Aug 13, 2026
HIT
Scored HIT · realized +24.2%
Reference price
$146.83
Price at horizon
$182.36
Realized move
+24.2%
Scored Aug 13, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+3.2%; realized +24.2%.
The Call
Near 52-week highs, strong margins, but insider selling pressure and premium valuation cap near-term upside.
Base-case reasoning
World Cup demand narrative could lift sentiment; insider selling limits upside conviction.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
World Cup 2026 demand surge + earnings beat + new HQ signals product expansion. Multiple holds at 38x.
▼ Bear
Macro slowdown dents travel spend, guidance cut, NYC regulatory overhang amplifies selling.
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