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Track Record / ADBE

ADBE Called Jul 28, 2026
at $246.03
▲ Bullish +1.8% over 1 week
Reference price
$246.03
Horizon
1 week
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Aug 4, 2026
HIT
Scored HIT · realized +2.1%
Reference price
$246.03
Price at horizon
$251.30
Realized move
+2.1%
Scored Aug 4, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called +1.8%; realized +2.1%.

The Call

Defensive SaaS compounder trading at a steep 52-week discount — AI disruption risk vs. durable margin story

Base-case reasoning

Broad software sector rally underway; today's +3.7% move with peers surging may carry short-term.

Bull & Bear

▲ Bull

Firefly monetization accelerates ARR, software sector re-rates, multiple expands to 16-17x earnings.

▼ Bear

AI disruption narrative deepens, revenue growth decelerates below 8%, multiple stays compressed or contracts further.

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