Track Record / ADBE
ADBE
Called Jul 8, 2026
at $218.68
at $218.68
▼ Bearish
-1.5% over 1 week
Reference price
$218.68
Horizon
1 week
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Jul 15, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized +3.5%
Reference price
$218.68
Price at horizon
$226.38
Realized move
+3.5%
Scored Jul 15, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
-1.5%; realized +3.5%.
The Call
Large-cap software at 43% discount to 52-week high; AI disruption fears vs. fortress margins create a value-vs-growth tension at $218.
Base-case reasoning
Post-downgrade selling pressure likely persists near-term; support at 52-week low ~$190 provides floor but momentum is negative.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
AI tools (Firefly, GenStudio) prove ARPU-additive; revenue reaccelerates above 13%; multiple expands to 18x earnings.
▼ Bear
AI cannibalization accelerates; revenue growth decelerates below 8%; further analyst downgrades; multiple compresses to 8-9x trailing earnings.
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