Track Record / AMZN
AMZN
Called Jun 30, 2026
at $240.04
at $240.04
▲ Bullish
+3.5% over 1 month
Reference price
$240.04
Horizon
1 month
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Jul 30, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized -3.8%
Reference price
$240.04
Price at horizon
$230.96
Realized move
-3.8%
Scored Jul 30, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+3.5%; realized -3.8%.
The Call
Large-cap cloud/retail hybrid trading 14% off 52-week highs; AWS growth + margin expansion offset by elevated P/FCF and insider sell pressure.
Base-case reasoning
Q2 earnings catalyst could re-rate upward if AWS growth surprises. Tariff headlines add downside risk.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
AWS re-accelerates to 20%+ growth, margin expansion continues, digital tariffs fail to materialize. Stock reclaims 52-week high.
▼ Bear
Digital tariffs hit, AWS growth slows, FCF miss, broader market risk-off. Stop at $218 limits damage.
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