Track Record / AMZN
AMZN
Called Jun 30, 2026
at $240.04
at $240.04
▲ Bullish
+0.6% over 1 week
Reference price
$240.04
Horizon
1 week
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Jul 7, 2026
HIT
Scored HIT · realized +1.9%
Reference price
$240.04
Price at horizon
$244.65
Realized move
+1.9%
Scored Jul 7, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+0.6%; realized +1.9%.
The Call
Large-cap cloud/retail hybrid trading 14% off 52-week highs; AWS growth + margin expansion offset by elevated P/FCF and insider sell pressure.
Base-case reasoning
Narrow range; consolidating below $240 resistance. Modest drift up if market stable.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
AWS re-accelerates to 20%+ growth, margin expansion continues, digital tariffs fail to materialize. Stock reclaims 52-week high.
▼ Bear
Digital tariffs hit, AWS growth slows, FCF miss, broader market risk-off. Stop at $218 limits damage.
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