Track Record / AMZN
AMZN
Called Jun 30, 2026
at $240.04
at $240.04
▲ Bullish
+7.7% over 3 months
Reference price
$240.04
Horizon
3 months
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Sep 30, 2026
HIT
Scored HIT · realized +2.8%
Reference price
$240.04
Price at horizon
$246.75
Realized move
+2.8%
Scored Sep 30, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+7.7%; realized +2.8%.
The Call
Large-cap cloud/retail hybrid trading 14% off 52-week highs; AWS growth + margin expansion offset by elevated P/FCF and insider sell pressure.
Base-case reasoning
Base case: margin expansion + AWS drives recovery toward prior highs. Bear case: macro/tariff pressure.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
AWS re-accelerates to 20%+ growth, margin expansion continues, digital tariffs fail to materialize. Stock reclaims 52-week high.
▼ Bear
Digital tariffs hit, AWS growth slows, FCF miss, broader market risk-off. Stop at $218 limits damage.
See how Sigma calls any ticker
Every official call is logged here and scored by a fixed rule. Run a live analysis on any of 5,000+ stocks — free.
Analyze AMZN live →