Track Record / AMZN
AMZN
Called Jul 20, 2026
at $247.23
at $247.23
▲ Bullish
+0.7% over 1 week
Reference price
$247.23
Horizon
1 week
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Jul 27, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized -4.2%
Reference price
$247.23
Price at horizon
$236.87
Realized move
-4.2%
Scored Jul 27, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+0.7%; realized -4.2%.
The Call
AWS + Anthropic optionality anchors bull case; stretched price-to-FCF and heavy insider selling temper near-term enthusiasm.
Base-case reasoning
Bouncing off intraday low $243.59; near-term stabilization likely if AI sentiment holds. Resistance at $250 day high.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
AWS AI monetization exceeds estimates; Anthropic IPO signals AMZN's stake value. Re-rate to 52W high and beyond.
▼ Bear
Macro softening hits ad revenue + retail; FCF disappoints given capex surge; multiple compresses on risk-off.
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