Track Record / ARM
ARM
Called Jul 4, 2026
at $315.28
at $315.28
▲ Bullish
+9.4% over 1 month
Reference price
$315.28
Horizon
1 month
Confidence
25% (derived)
Scores on
Aug 4, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized -23.8%
Reference price
$315.28
Price at horizon
$240.10
Realized move
-23.8%
Scored Aug 4, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+9.4%; realized -23.8%.
The Call
AI-driven licensing royalty model priced to perfection at 371x P/E; beta-3.8 name down 6.6% today on SoftBank liquidation fears and valuation downgrades.
Base-case reasoning
If AI spending narrative holds and SoftBank selling pauses, a bounce toward $340-360 is plausible. Macro shock could push to $275.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
AI royalty cycle accelerates, SoftBank selling absorbed, market re-rates toward software comps. Return to prior highs plausible.
▼ Bear
SoftBank liquidation triggers technical breakdown. AI capex slowdown hits royalty growth expectations. Multiple compresses to 150-200x — still not cheap.
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