Track Record / ARM
ARM
Called Jul 4, 2026
at $315.28
at $315.28
▲ Bullish
+1.5% over 1 week
Reference price
$315.28
Horizon
1 week
Confidence
25% (derived)
Scores on
Jul 11, 2026
Pending
This call is open and on the clock
Scores on Jul 11, 2026
A public commitment, made Jul 4, 2026 with ARM at $315.28.
It will be scored automatically on its horizon date against the trailing 3-day average price — whether it's right or wrong.
Nothing here is hindsight: the call, the entry price, and the deadline were all fixed at the time it was made.
The Call
AI-driven licensing royalty model priced to perfection at 371x P/E; beta-3.8 name down 6.6% today on SoftBank liquidation fears and valuation downgrades.
Base-case reasoning
High beta + SoftBank overhang + multiple downgrades keep near-term volatile. Range-bound to slight recovery from today's flush.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
AI royalty cycle accelerates, SoftBank selling absorbed, market re-rates toward software comps. Return to prior highs plausible.
▼ Bear
SoftBank liquidation triggers technical breakdown. AI capex slowdown hits royalty growth expectations. Multiple compresses to 150-200x — still not cheap.
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