Track Record / ARM
ARM
Called Jul 4, 2026
at $315.28
at $315.28
▲ Bullish
+1.5% over 1 week
Reference price
$315.28
Horizon
1 week
Confidence
25% (derived)
Scores on
Jul 11, 2026
FLAT
Scored FLAT · realized +0.6%
Reference price
$315.28
Price at horizon
$317.17
Realized move
+0.6%
Scored Jul 11, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+1.5%; realized +0.6%.
The Call
AI-driven licensing royalty model priced to perfection at 371x P/E; beta-3.8 name down 6.6% today on SoftBank liquidation fears and valuation downgrades.
Base-case reasoning
High beta + SoftBank overhang + multiple downgrades keep near-term volatile. Range-bound to slight recovery from today's flush.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
AI royalty cycle accelerates, SoftBank selling absorbed, market re-rates toward software comps. Return to prior highs plausible.
▼ Bear
SoftBank liquidation triggers technical breakdown. AI capex slowdown hits royalty growth expectations. Multiple compresses to 150-200x — still not cheap.
See how Sigma calls any ticker
Every official call is logged here and scored by a fixed rule. Run a live analysis on any of 5,000+ stocks — free.
Analyze ARM live →