Track Record / ARM
ARM
Called Jul 4, 2026
at $315.28
at $315.28
▲ Bullish
+14.2% over 3 months
Reference price
$315.28
Horizon
3 months
Confidence
25% (derived)
Scores on
Oct 4, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized -6.0%
Reference price
$315.28
Price at horizon
$296.50
Realized move
-6.0%
Scored Oct 4, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+14.2%; realized -6.0%.
The Call
AI-driven licensing royalty model priced to perfection at 371x P/E; beta-3.8 name down 6.6% today on SoftBank liquidation fears and valuation downgrades.
Base-case reasoning
Earnings cadence and AI chip demand data are key swing factors. Valuation compression risk remains elevated at these multiples.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
AI royalty cycle accelerates, SoftBank selling absorbed, market re-rates toward software comps. Return to prior highs plausible.
▼ Bear
SoftBank liquidation triggers technical breakdown. AI capex slowdown hits royalty growth expectations. Multiple compresses to 150-200x — still not cheap.
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