Track Record / ARM
ARM
Called Jul 24, 2026
at $285.09
at $285.09
▲ Bullish
+1.0% over 1 week
Reference price
$285.09
Horizon
1 week
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Jul 31, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized -16.0%
Reference price
$285.09
Price at horizon
$239.59
Realized move
-16.0%
Scored Jul 31, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+1.0%; realized -16.0%.
The Call
AI-era IP royalty engine trading at extreme growth multiples; 36% off 52-week highs but still richly priced at P/E ~334x
Base-case reasoning
Momentum from Intel-driven after-hours lift; near-term resistance around 52-week range midpoint; high beta amplifies noise.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
Armv9 royalty ramp accelerates; AI server + data center wins expand TAM; multiple re-rates as EPS growth closes gap.
▼ Bear
Growth disappoints or macro tightens; multiple compresses sharply from 333x; high beta accelerates downside. RISC-V threat re-emerges.
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