Track Record / BABA
BABA
Called Jul 18, 2026
at $114.97
at $114.97
▲ Bullish
+13.1% over 3 months
Reference price
$114.97
Horizon
3 months
Confidence
25% (derived)
Scores on
Oct 18, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized -3.9%
Reference price
$114.97
Price at horizon
$110.47
Realized move
-3.9%
Scored Oct 18, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+13.1%; realized -3.9%.
The Call
Large-cap Chinese tech at 40% below 52W high; Apple AI partnership catalyst vs. persistent geopolitical overhang and margin compression.
Base-case reasoning
Recovery thesis depends on China macro stabilization and continued AI monetization signals.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
Apple AI partnership expands BABA cloud/AI revenue; China consumer recovery lifts commerce. Multiple re-rates to 22x.
▼ Bear
Escalating US-China tensions, ADR delisting threat, or China macro deterioration crushes sentiment.
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