Track Record / CVX
CVX
Called Jun 27, 2026
at $171.09
at $171.09
▲ Bullish
+5.2% over 3 months
Reference price
$171.09
Horizon
3 months
Confidence
25% (derived)
Scores on
Sep 27, 2026
HIT
Scored HIT · realized +19.9%
Reference price
$171.09
Price at horizon
$205.20
Realized move
+19.9%
Scored Sep 27, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+5.2%; realized +19.9%.
The Call
Dividend Aristocrat under pressure: 20% off 52-week high, elevated P/E vs. compressed margins, but 4.1% yield offers income cushion.
Base-case reasoning
Recovery scenario tied to oil price and earnings stabilization. Heavy insider selling caps upside confidence.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
Crude oil rallies above $85/bbl, Iran deal collapses, EPS recovers — P/E normalizes and dividend coverage restored.
▼ Bear
Crude slips below $60, CVX cuts or freezes dividend, insider selling accelerates, multiple compresses to 10x earnings.
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