Track Record / HOOD
HOOD
Called Jul 5, 2026
at $112.73
at $112.73
▲ Bullish
+10.0% over 1 month
Reference price
$112.73
Horizon
1 month
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Aug 5, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized -17.7%
Reference price
$112.73
Price at horizon
$92.73
Realized move
-17.7%
Scored Aug 5, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+10.0%; realized -17.7%.
The Call
High-beta fintech at 27% off 52w high — momentum vs stretched valuation with heavy insider selling
Base-case reasoning
If crypto/trading volumes sustain and no macro shock, momentum could push toward prior resistance. Insider selling is a drag.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
Crypto rally, prediction market expansion, Goldman upgrade cycle, and AI narrative push HOOD back to 52w highs
▼ Bear
Risk-off macro move, crypto correction, or earnings miss at stretched multiples triggers a -30%+ flush given beta 2.3
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