Track Record / JPM
JPM
Called Jul 29, 2026
at $353.84
at $353.84
▲ Bullish
+6.0% over 3 months
Reference price
$353.84
Horizon
3 months
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Oct 29, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized -4.0%
Reference price
$353.84
Price at horizon
$339.63
Realized move
-4.0%
Scored Oct 29, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+6.0%; realized -4.0%.
The Call
Large-cap banking bellwether trading near 52-week highs; modest pullback today with solid fundamentals and constructive insider net buying.
Base-case reasoning
Base case: earnings momentum and IB fee cycle sustain gradual re-rating; recession risk is the main downside.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
IB fee cycle accelerates, NIM holds, EPS beats forward estimates, stock re-rates to 18x forward.
▼ Bear
Recession triggers provision builds, NIM compresses on rate cuts, credit losses rise; de-rates to ~12x.
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