Track Record / META
META
Called Jul 1, 2026
at $599.86
at $599.86
▲ Bullish
+16.4% over 3 months
Reference price
$599.86
Horizon
3 months
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Oct 1, 2026
HIT
Scored HIT · realized +21.8%
Reference price
$599.86
Price at horizon
$730.70
Realized move
+21.8%
Scored Oct 1, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+16.4%; realized +21.8%.
The Call
Strong +6.8% surge today; 20x trailing P/E with 41% op margins — quality large-cap at a reasonable multiple, but 25% off 52-week highs and legal headwinds brewing.
Base-case reasoning
Base case targets $700 on ~20% EPS growth re-rate. Bear scenario sees lawsuit escalation + macro drag pushing back to $540.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
AI ad tools accelerate ARPU; lawsuit settles favorably; macro re-accelerates. 52-wk high retest possible.
▼ Bear
Lawsuit reaches damaging verdict or settlement; macro softens ad budgets; AI search fails to monetize. Retest 52-wk low.
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