Track Record / MSTR
MSTR
Called Jul 25, 2026
at $91.67
at $91.67
▼ Bearish
-0.7% over 1 week
Reference price
$91.67
Horizon
1 week
Confidence
25% (derived)
Scores on
Aug 1, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized +3.4%
Reference price
$91.67
Price at horizon
$94.78
Realized move
+3.4%
Scored Aug 1, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
-0.7%; realized +3.4%.
The Call
Leveraged BTC holding vehicle trading at 78% off 52-week high; beta 3.57, negative operating margins, NAV premium debate ongoing
Base-case reasoning
High beta + BTC sentiment-dependent; near 52-wk low support ~$81.81 provides mild floor
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
BTC breaks above $120K, MSTR re-rates to NAV premium; BlackRock consortium drives institutional inflows
▼ Bear
BTC drops below $75K; convert/debt refinancing stress; equity dilution accelerates; quantum headlines compound sentiment damage
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