Track Record / MSTR
MSTR
Called Jul 25, 2026
at $91.67
at $91.67
▼ Bearish
-0.7% over 1 week
Reference price
$91.67
Horizon
1 week
Confidence
25% (derived)
Scores on
Aug 1, 2026
Pending
This call is open and on the clock
Scores on Aug 1, 2026
A public commitment, made Jul 25, 2026 with MSTR at $91.67.
It will be scored automatically on its horizon date against the trailing 3-day average price — whether it's right or wrong.
Nothing here is hindsight: the call, the entry price, and the deadline were all fixed at the time it was made.
The Call
Leveraged BTC holding vehicle trading at 78% off 52-week high; beta 3.57, negative operating margins, NAV premium debate ongoing
Base-case reasoning
High beta + BTC sentiment-dependent; near 52-wk low support ~$81.81 provides mild floor
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
BTC breaks above $120K, MSTR re-rates to NAV premium; BlackRock consortium drives institutional inflows
▼ Bear
BTC drops below $75K; convert/debt refinancing stress; equity dilution accelerates; quantum headlines compound sentiment damage
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