Track Record / NFLX
NFLX
Called Jul 2, 2026
at $75.64
at $75.64
▲ Bullish
+9.7% over 1 month
Reference price
$75.64
Horizon
1 month
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Aug 2, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized -3.7%
Reference price
$75.64
Price at horizon
$72.84
Realized move
-3.7%
Scored Aug 2, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+9.7%; realized -3.7%.
The Call
Large-cap streaming leader trading near 52-week lows; M&A noise cleared, but insider selling pressure and valuation vs. growth warrant scrutiny.
Base-case reasoning
If macro holds and next earnings confirm margin expansion, recovery toward $83-90 plausible. Miss risk is elevated near 52wk lows.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
Earnings beat + ad-tier subscriber acceleration + macro tailwinds could re-rate NFLX to ~28x forward earnings on higher estimates.
▼ Bear
Risk-off macro selloff, beta 1.52 amplifies decline; subscriber growth miss triggers re-rating below 52wk low.
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