Track Record / NIO
NIO
Called Jul 7, 2026
at $5.02
at $5.02
▲ Bullish
+8.6% over 1 month
Reference price
$5.02
Horizon
1 month
Confidence
25% (derived)
Scores on
Aug 7, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized -7.5%
Reference price
$5.02
Price at horizon
$4.64
Realized move
-7.5%
Scored Aug 7, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+8.6%; realized -7.5%.
The Call
Chinese EV at penny-adjacent levels; ES9 delivery momentum vs. chronic losses and insider selling create a high-risk speculative setup.
Base-case reasoning
Delivery data momentum could lift sentiment, but liquidity concerns and macro headwinds may cap upside
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
ES9 sustains 10K+/mo deliveries, gross margin breaks above 15%, China EV subsidies renewed — P/S re-rates toward 1.2x
▼ Bear
Liquidity stress forces dilutive raise, margins worsen, ADR delisting fears or macro selloff crushes sentiment to near 52w low
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