Track Record / NIO
NIO
Called Jul 7, 2026
at $5.02
at $5.02
▲ Bullish
+19.5% over 3 months
Reference price
$5.02
Horizon
3 months
Confidence
25% (derived)
Scores on
Oct 7, 2026
Pending
This call is open and on the clock
Scores on Oct 7, 2026
A public commitment, made Jul 7, 2026 with NIO at $5.02.
It will be scored automatically on its horizon date against the trailing 3-day average price — whether it's right or wrong.
Nothing here is hindsight: the call, the entry price, and the deadline were all fixed at the time it was made.
The Call
Chinese EV at penny-adjacent levels; ES9 delivery momentum vs. chronic losses and insider selling create a high-risk speculative setup.
Base-case reasoning
Bull case requires margin improvement signal or China policy support; bear case sees continued cash burn pressure
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
ES9 sustains 10K+/mo deliveries, gross margin breaks above 15%, China EV subsidies renewed — P/S re-rates toward 1.2x
▼ Bear
Liquidity stress forces dilutive raise, margins worsen, ADR delisting fears or macro selloff crushes sentiment to near 52w low
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