Track Record / NIO
NIO
Called Jul 7, 2026
at $5.02
at $5.02
▲ Bullish
+1.6% over 1 week
Reference price
$5.02
Horizon
1 week
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Jul 14, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized -1.5%
Reference price
$5.02
Price at horizon
$4.94
Realized move
-1.5%
Scored Jul 14, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+1.6%; realized -1.5%.
The Call
Chinese EV at penny-adjacent levels; ES9 delivery momentum vs. chronic losses and insider selling create a high-risk speculative setup.
Base-case reasoning
ES9 delivery milestone provides near-term positive catalyst; range-bound unless broader EV sentiment shifts
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
ES9 sustains 10K+/mo deliveries, gross margin breaks above 15%, China EV subsidies renewed — P/S re-rates toward 1.2x
▼ Bear
Liquidity stress forces dilutive raise, margins worsen, ADR delisting fears or macro selloff crushes sentiment to near 52w low
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