Track Record / NIO
NIO
Called Jul 27, 2026
at $4.63
at $4.63
▲ Bullish
+1.1% over 1 week
Reference price
$4.63
Horizon
1 week
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Aug 3, 2026
HIT
Scored HIT · realized +4.5%
Reference price
$4.63
Price at horizon
$4.84
Realized move
+4.5%
Scored Aug 3, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+1.1%; realized +4.5%.
The Call
Chinese EV mid-cap near 52-week lows; revenue growth intact but deep losses, thin liquidity, and rising US legislative risk cloud the near-term path.
Base-case reasoning
Stock at day-high; minor momentum after +3.1% session. Near-term range likely 4.45–4.85 barring fresh catalyst.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
Gross margin surpasses 15%, ONVO volumes ramp, China policy stimulus boosts EV demand — re-rate toward P/S 1.2x.
▼ Bear
US Chinese vehicle bill advances, ADR risk spikes, liquidity crunch forces dilutive equity raise — stock tests or breaks 52-week low.
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