Track Record / RIVN
RIVN
Called Jul 6, 2026
at $19.12
at $19.12
▲ Bullish
+1.9% over 1 week
Reference price
$19.12
Horizon
1 week
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Jul 13, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized -7.2%
Reference price
$19.12
Price at horizon
$17.75
Realized move
-7.2%
Scored Jul 13, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+1.9%; realized -7.2%.
The Call
48% revenue growth & R2 launch hype vs. -67% net margins and persistent cash burn; a speculative recovery play at $19.
Base-case reasoning
Near-term momentum from R2 news cycle intact; support near day-low $18.39. Resistance at 52wk high $22.69.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
R2 ramps on schedule, gross margin reaches 8%+, VW capital backstop removes dilution fear; re-rating to 6x P/S.
▼ Bear
R2 launch delays, continued cash burn, broader EV demand weakness forces dilutive equity raise below $15.
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