Track Record / RIVN
RIVN
Called Jul 26, 2026
at $15.84
at $15.84
▼ Bearish
-1.5% over 1 week
Reference price
$15.84
Horizon
1 week
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Aug 2, 2026
Pending
This call is open and on the clock
Scores on Aug 2, 2026
A public commitment, made Jul 26, 2026 with RIVN at $15.84.
It will be scored automatically on its horizon date against the trailing 3-day average price — whether it's right or wrong.
Nothing here is hindsight: the call, the entry price, and the deadline were all fixed at the time it was made.
The Call
Pre-profitability EV manufacturer; R2 launch cycle is the key make-or-break catalyst. Deep losses offset by improving gross margin trajectory.
Base-case reasoning
Today's -3.77% selloff; range likely consolidates near $15.68 support. Day high $16.61 is short-term resistance.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
R2 deliveries begin on schedule, gross margin expands past 10%, VW partnership deepens. Market re-rates toward $24-25.
▼ Bear
R2 delays, continued cash burn forces dilutive equity raise. EV demand slowdown or tariff escalation could compress valuation to near book value.
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