Track Record / RIVN
RIVN
Called Jul 26, 2026
at $15.84
at $15.84
▼ Bearish
-1.5% over 1 week
Reference price
$15.84
Horizon
1 week
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Aug 2, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized +1.8%
Reference price
$15.84
Price at horizon
$16.13
Realized move
+1.8%
Scored Aug 2, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
-1.5%; realized +1.8%.
The Call
Pre-profitability EV manufacturer; R2 launch cycle is the key make-or-break catalyst. Deep losses offset by improving gross margin trajectory.
Base-case reasoning
Today's -3.77% selloff; range likely consolidates near $15.68 support. Day high $16.61 is short-term resistance.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
R2 deliveries begin on schedule, gross margin expands past 10%, VW partnership deepens. Market re-rates toward $24-25.
▼ Bear
R2 delays, continued cash burn forces dilutive equity raise. EV demand slowdown or tariff escalation could compress valuation to near book value.
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