Track Record / RIVN
RIVN
Called Jul 6, 2026
at $19.12
at $19.12
▲ Bullish
+15.5% over 3 months
Reference price
$19.12
Horizon
3 months
Confidence
25% (derived)
Scores on
Oct 6, 2026
Pending
This call is open and on the clock
Scores on Oct 6, 2026
A public commitment, made Jul 6, 2026 with RIVN at $19.12.
It will be scored automatically on its horizon date against the trailing 3-day average price — whether it's right or wrong.
Nothing here is hindsight: the call, the entry price, and the deadline were all fixed at the time it was made.
The Call
48% revenue growth & R2 launch hype vs. -67% net margins and persistent cash burn; a speculative recovery play at $19.
Base-case reasoning
Bull path requires gross margin improvement toward 5%+ and R2 volume ramp confirmation. Bear path is cash burn fears.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
R2 ramps on schedule, gross margin reaches 8%+, VW capital backstop removes dilution fear; re-rating to 6x P/S.
▼ Bear
R2 launch delays, continued cash burn, broader EV demand weakness forces dilutive equity raise below $15.
See how Sigma calls any ticker
Every official call is logged here and scored by a fixed rule. Run a live analysis on any of 5,000+ stocks — free.
Analyze RIVN live →