Track Record / SBUX
SBUX
Called Jul 12, 2026
at $106.01
at $106.01
▲ Bullish
+11.3% over 3 months
Reference price
$106.01
Horizon
3 months
Confidence
25% (derived)
Scores on
Oct 12, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized -13.5%
Reference price
$106.01
Price at horizon
$91.70
Realized move
-13.5%
Scored Oct 12, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+11.3%; realized -13.5%.
The Call
Turnaround story at 52-week highs; sky-high multiples demand execution perfection from new CEO Brian Niccol.
Base-case reasoning
Bull case: Niccol execution + cost cuts inflate FCF. Bear case: margins disappoint, de-rate to low-60s P/E.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
Niccol restores comps, $400M cost cuts flow to margins, FCF rebounds — re-rates to 70x forward on recovered EPS.
▼ Bear
Execution stumbles, consumer spending weakens, dividend cut risk surfaces — de-rate to 50x on falling EPS.
See how Sigma calls any ticker
Every official call is logged here and scored by a fixed rule. Run a live analysis on any of 5,000+ stocks — free.
Analyze SBUX live →