Track Record / SBUX
SBUX
Called Jul 12, 2026
at $106.01
at $106.01
▲ Bullish
+2.8% over 1 month
Reference price
$106.01
Horizon
1 month
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Aug 12, 2026
FLAT
Scored FLAT · realized -0.0%
Reference price
$106.01
Price at horizon
$105.98
Realized move
-0.0%
Scored Aug 12, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+2.8%; realized -0.0%.
The Call
Turnaround story at 52-week highs; sky-high multiples demand execution perfection from new CEO Brian Niccol.
Base-case reasoning
If turnaround metrics improve in next earnings, could push through $108 resistance. Miss re-tests $99.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
Niccol restores comps, $400M cost cuts flow to margins, FCF rebounds — re-rates to 70x forward on recovered EPS.
▼ Bear
Execution stumbles, consumer spending weakens, dividend cut risk surfaces — de-rate to 50x on falling EPS.
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