Track Record / SMCI
SMCI
Called Jul 4, 2026
at $27.22
at $27.22
▲ Bullish
+24.9% over 3 months
Reference price
$27.22
Horizon
3 months
Confidence
25% (derived)
Scores on
Oct 4, 2026
HIT
Scored HIT · realized +55.1%
Reference price
$27.22
Price at horizon
$42.23
Realized move
+55.1%
Scored Oct 4, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+24.9%; realized +55.1%.
The Call
High-growth AI server play at 56% off 52-week high; cheap multiples mask governance risk and razor-thin margins.
Base-case reasoning
Earnings cadence and margin trend will be decisive. Bull setup targets $36-42; bear re-test of 52-week lows near $19-20 if margins compress.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
Regulatory inquiry resolved, AI-RAN/StorMagic partnerships generate visible backlog, margins inch toward 14%+. Multiple re-rates toward 1.2x P/S.
▼ Bear
Regulatory action intensifies, hyperscalers renegotiate pricing, margins compress below 8%. Stock re-tests 52-week lows near $19-20.
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