Track Record / SOFI
SOFI
Called Jul 6, 2026
at $18.93
at $18.93
▲ Bullish
+10.8% over 1 month
Reference price
$18.93
Horizon
1 month
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Aug 6, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized -2.8%
Reference price
$18.93
Price at horizon
$18.41
Realized move
-2.8%
Scored Aug 6, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+10.8%; realized -2.8%.
The Call
Fintech bank rebounding from 52-wk lows; Trump Accounts catalyst adds near-term tailwind, but margin losses and beta-2.2 demand discipline.
Base-case reasoning
July 4 Trump Accounts rollout is a hard catalyst; if adoption metrics impress, re-rate possible.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
Trump Accounts drives strong Q3 membership; margins inflect positive; re-rate to 55x forward P/E.
▼ Bear
Credit cycle tightens; Trump Accounts adoption disappoints; multiple compression back toward $14-16 range.
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