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Track Record / SPCX

SPCX Called Jun 28, 2026
at $153.23
▼ Bearish -0.8% over 1 week
Reference price
$153.23
Horizon
1 week
Confidence
25% (derived)
Scores on
Jul 5, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized +6.7%
Reference price
$153.23
Price at horizon
$163.47
Realized move
+6.7%
Scored Jul 5, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called -0.8%; realized +6.7%.

The Call

Down ~12% from last analysis ($173.92 → $153.23). Still a hyper-illiquid SpaceX proxy burning cash. Momentum faded; 52-wk high now 32% above.

Base-case reasoning

Sitting near 52-wk low; vol is extreme. Slight downward bias without catalyst.

Bull & Bear

▲ Bull

SpaceX IPO announcement or valuation update triggers proxy-play surge. Momentum chasers pile in.

▼ Bear

IPO delayed further, risk-off mood hits speculative names. Thin float amplifies any sell pressure.

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