Track Record / TXN
TXN
Called Jul 23, 2026
at $294.19
at $294.19
▲ Bullish
+1.3% over 1 month
Reference price
$294.19
Horizon
1 month
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Aug 23, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized -9.6%
Reference price
$294.19
Price at horizon
$265.80
Realized move
-9.6%
Scored Aug 23, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+1.3%; realized -9.6%.
The Call
Post-earnings drift: TXN beat Q2 but shares slipped — rich valuation vs. recovering analog cycle creates a tension trade at $294.
Base-case reasoning
If analog cycle narrative firms and broader semis stabilize, TXN could recover. STMicro peer warning is a headwind.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
Analog cycle turns decisively in H2; industrial/auto restocking drives revenue back above $20/share. Multiple re-rates to 40x on earnings inflection. Retests 52-wk high.
▼ Bear
Cycle recovery disappoints, STMicro-style warnings spread. At 49x P/E with -16% EPS growth, even modest guidance cut triggers sharp de-rating toward 35x on lower earnings.
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