Track Record / TXN
TXN
Called Jul 23, 2026
at $294.19
at $294.19
▲ Bullish
+7.1% over 3 months
Reference price
$294.19
Horizon
3 months
Confidence
25% (derived)
Scores on
Oct 23, 2026
Pending
This call is open and on the clock
Scores on Oct 23, 2026
A public commitment, made Jul 23, 2026 with TXN at $294.19.
It will be scored automatically on its horizon date against the trailing 3-day average price — whether it's right or wrong.
Nothing here is hindsight: the call, the entry price, and the deadline were all fixed at the time it was made.
The Call
Post-earnings drift: TXN beat Q2 but shares slipped — rich valuation vs. recovering analog cycle creates a tension trade at $294.
Base-case reasoning
Recovery thesis depends on inventory normalization confirmation in Q3 report. Bull targets prior 52wk high zone near $334; bear revisits $260.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
Analog cycle turns decisively in H2; industrial/auto restocking drives revenue back above $20/share. Multiple re-rates to 40x on earnings inflection. Retests 52-wk high.
▼ Bear
Cycle recovery disappoints, STMicro-style warnings spread. At 49x P/E with -16% EPS growth, even modest guidance cut triggers sharp de-rating toward 35x on lower earnings.
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