Track Record / TXN
TXN
Called Jul 23, 2026
at $294.19
at $294.19
▲ Bullish
+7.1% over 3 months
Reference price
$294.19
Horizon
3 months
Confidence
25% (derived)
Scores on
Oct 23, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized -4.6%
Reference price
$294.19
Price at horizon
$280.64
Realized move
-4.6%
Scored Oct 23, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+7.1%; realized -4.6%.
The Call
Post-earnings drift: TXN beat Q2 but shares slipped — rich valuation vs. recovering analog cycle creates a tension trade at $294.
Base-case reasoning
Recovery thesis depends on inventory normalization confirmation in Q3 report. Bull targets prior 52wk high zone near $334; bear revisits $260.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
Analog cycle turns decisively in H2; industrial/auto restocking drives revenue back above $20/share. Multiple re-rates to 40x on earnings inflection. Retests 52-wk high.
▼ Bear
Cycle recovery disappoints, STMicro-style warnings spread. At 49x P/E with -16% EPS growth, even modest guidance cut triggers sharp de-rating toward 35x on lower earnings.
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