Track Record / WMT
WMT
Called Jul 11, 2026
at $113.90
at $113.90
▲ Bullish
+2.7% over 1 month
Reference price
$113.90
Horizon
1 month
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Aug 11, 2026
MISS
Scored MISS · realized -1.4%
Reference price
$113.90
Price at horizon
$112.28
Realized move
-1.4%
Scored Aug 11, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+2.7%; realized -1.4%.
The Call
Defensive retail giant trading at a premium; strong earnings growth but valuation stretched vs. 52-week highs and forward multiples elevated.
Base-case reasoning
If macro stays stable and consumer spending holds, WMT could reclaim $117–120 range; downside risk from any weak guidance.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
E-commerce + advertising revenue accelerate; gross margin expansion; consumer trade-down cycle sustains traffic beats.
▼ Bear
Margin compression from tariffs/wages + any earnings miss triggers P/E compression from 40x toward 30x = ~25% drawdown.
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