Track Record / XOM
XOM
Called Jul 16, 2026
at $145.87
at $145.87
▲ Bullish
+0.8% over 1 week
Reference price
$145.87
Horizon
1 week
Confidence
55% (derived)
Scores on
Jul 23, 2026
HIT
Scored HIT · realized +5.9%
Reference price
$145.87
Price at horizon
$154.43
Realized move
+5.9%
Scored Jul 23, 2026 by the fixed public rule: a directional call is a HIT only if the
realized move went its way beyond a ±1% dead band, a MISS if it went against, and FLAT inside the band. Called
+0.8%; realized +5.9%.
The Call
Large-cap integrated energy; defensive income with upstream leverage to oil >$80 — trades 17% off 52-week high with insider buying balanced by earnings headwinds.
Base-case reasoning
Day momentum positive (+1%); oil >$80 headline tailwind. Near-term range likely $143-$149.
Bull & Bear
▲ Bull
Oil sustains $85+; Pioneer cost saves accelerate; buyback pace lifts EPS; multiple re-rates to 26x.
▼ Bear
Oil drops below $72 on demand fears; EPS misses again; dividend coverage questioned; de-rating to 10x.
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