Learn stock research without pretending markets are simple.

02 / scenarios

Turn a thesis into bull, base, and bear cases.

A thesis is not only a sentence like "the stock is cheap" or "AI demand is strong." It should be a range of possible outcomes with evidence attached to each path. Scenario work helps you avoid treating one attractive story as the only future.

Base case

The base case is the ordinary path: what might happen if the company performs close to current expectations. It should include revenue direction, margin assumptions, balance sheet needs, likely catalysts, and a valuation range that does not require heroic assumptions.

Bull case

The bull case asks what could justify upside. Examples include faster revenue growth, durable margin expansion, new product adoption, lower capital intensity, better cash conversion, regulatory relief, or a valuation multiple that expands because investors trust the story more.

Bear case

The bear case asks what could break the thesis. Examples include demand slowing, pricing pressure, customer concentration, rising debt costs, dilution, execution misses, inventory problems, or a stock that already discounts perfection.

04 / review

Keep a research log.

A research log makes your process measurable. Record the date, ticker, thesis, expected catalyst, bull case, bear case, valuation range, planned risk, and what would change your mind. Later, review whether the outcome came from skill, luck, a changed market regime, or a flawed assumption.

Sigma Terminal is designed for this style of thinking: repeatable prompts, structured outputs, and plain-language scenario analysis. The goal is not to remove uncertainty. The goal is to make uncertainty easier to inspect.