Analyses / CHTR
Deeply discounted cable/media giant; strong FCF conversion & insider buying offset structural headwinds & leverage concerns.
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The Thesis
▲ Bull Case
P/E 5.4x, P/FCF 6.0x — historically cheap for stable cash generator. 47% gross margin, 23.5% op margin, 9.1% net margin show pricing power & cost control. EPS growth 5.6% YoY, 18.65% 5Y CAGR. Insider net buys 2.8M shares (net +1.9M after sells). Down 47% from 52W high ($286) signals potential washout; recovery playbook in video/broadband if sub trends stabilize.
▼ Bear Case
Stock halved from highs; structural cord-cutting risk unresolved. Revenue growth only +0.46% YoY, +2.63% 5Y — stagnant. Current ratio 0.39, quick ratio 0.32 = liquidity squeeze. Tangible book value deeply negative (-$599/share) signals massive intangible asset write-down risk. High leverage (EV $123B on modest EBITDA) vulnerable if subscribers or margins compress further.
Valuation
UNDERVALUED — score 74/100
Trading 5.4x P/E vs 23.5% op margin & double-digit 5Y EPS growth suggests 30–50% discount to intrinsic. P/FCF 6.0x & P/S 0.49x well below historical peers. Discount justified only by leverage & revenue stagnation; recovery scenario plausible.
Technical Levels
Support · $135.00 (Stop loss / major breakdown level) · $145.00 (Recent pivot; entry zone floor) · $152.00 (Current price; daily support)
Resistance · $160.00 (Entry zone ceiling / intermediate resistance) · $175.00 (3-month target range) · $200.00 (Psychological / bull-case breakout) · $285.00 (52-week high)
Financial Health
Score 41/100. Liquidity critically tight (current/quick ratios <0.4); refinancing or working-capital stress if credit markets tighten. Massive goodwill/intangible base ($725/share of book value, per tangible book negative) — impairment risk if subs, margins, or valuations slip. Stable margins & strong FCF partially offset. Leverage remains primary risk.
Catalysts
| Q3/Q4 earnings & subscriber guidance | Next 8–16 weeks | high |
| Broadband net-add inflection (if subs stabilize, ARPU grows) | Next 2–3 quarters | high |
| Refinancing or debt reduction announcement | Next 6–12 months | high |
| Capital return / buyback restart | Next 4–8 quarters if FCF strong | medium |
| Video subscriber trend reversal or stabilization | Ongoing; next earnings | high |
Risk Flags
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CHTR FAQ
Is CHTR a buy right now?
Charter Communications Inc's current read is a value recovery / income setup with 62 confidence over a 6-12 months horizon. Valuation: UNDERVALUED. See the full bull and bear case above, or run a live analysis for the exact entry, target and stop.
Is CHTR overvalued?
UNDERVALUED (valuation score 74/100). Trading 5.4x P/E vs 23.5% op margin & double-digit 5Y EPS growth suggests 30–50% discount to intrinsic. P/FCF 6.0x & P/S 0.49x well below historical peers. Discount justified only by leverage & revenue stagnation; recovery scenario plausible.
What are the risks of buying CHTR?
Stock halved from highs; structural cord-cutting risk unresolved. Revenue growth only +0.46% YoY, +2.63% 5Y — stagnant. Current ratio 0.39, quick ratio 0.32 = liquidity squeeze. Tangible book value deeply negative (-$599/share) signals massive intangible asset write-down risk. High leverage (EV $123B on modest EBITDA) vulnerable if subscribers or margins compress further.